The aftereffect of Xiangshui explosion: to speed up the chemical industry's "retreat from the city into the park"

The aftereffect of Xiangshui "3 · 21" explosion is still fermenting.

On April 8, the Standing Committee of the CPC Jiangsu Provincial Committee held a meeting to discuss the improvement plan for the safety and environmental protection of the chemical industry in Jiangsu Province. The meeting stressed that the chemical industry should be treated comprehensively and dialectically in history. The enterprises and parks that do not meet the safety production standards must be closed, the enterprises and parks that do not meet the environmental protection standards must be closed, and the backward low-end enterprises must be eliminated. Enterprises meeting the standards of safety production and environmental protection should support technological transformation, supporting supporting industries and improving industrial chain. Under the heavy local rectification, the capital market began to stir. On April 8, 51 chemical stocks including Zhejiang Longsheng (600352. SH), nuopxin (002215. SZ) and Xianda (603086. SH) rose the limit collectively. The prices of dyes, pesticides and other chemicals affected by the explosion are also rising. "It will be a general trend for chemical industry to" retreat from the city and enter the park. " Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser on energy, environment and climate change of the International Association for the protection of natural resources, told China Business Daily that the unprecedented renovation and shutdown inspection of the chemical industry in Jiangsu and even the whole country will have a great impact on the chemical industry in the short term, and small chemical enterprises in Guangdong, Southern Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are facing the pressure of relocation. Tianjiayi Chemical Co., Ltd. is one of the three major suppliers of dyestuff raw materials in China. After the accident, the prices of dyes and other chemicals rose. According to the reporter's statistics, affected by the explosion accident, last week, the price of m-phenylenediamine rose from 100000 yuan / ton to 150000 yuan / ton, and the price of disperse dyes rose from 50000 yuan / ton to 60000 yuan / ton. Yang Li, senior analyst of jinlianchuang, told reporters that on April 3, after the "3.21" explosion in Xiangshui, Zhongdan chemical, the world's largest indigo manufacturer, also had an explosion. The superposition of the two accidents directly impacted the dye industry. From the recent stock performance, Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtu shares (002440. SZ) rose significantly. Zhejiang Longsheng did not respond to the reporter about the impact of the explosion accident and the rise of product prices, but only said that the contents disclosed in the announcement were the criteria. According to the announcement issued by Zhejiang Longsheng on April 8, the sales prices of the company's main products, disperse dyes and m-phenylenediamine, have been adjusted due to the rise of raw material prices and the influence of supply and demand. Among them, the average transaction price of disperse dyes on April 1-3 was 7% higher than that of last month and 11.35% higher than that of 2018 (the quarterly fluctuation range of the average transaction price including tax in 2018 was 38000-45000 yuan / T); the average transaction price of m-phenylenediamine on April 1-3 was 23% higher than that of last month and 30.97% higher than that of 2018 (the quarterly fluctuation range of the average transaction price including tax in 2018 was 31000-42000 yuan / T). "After the explosion, the prices of chemicals began to rise. The market expected that the Xiangshui explosion would involve relatively large suppliers. The market believed that there would be a shortage of raw materials for dyes and pesticide intermediates after the explosion, and then the capital market sentiment was ignited, and the prices would rise very quickly." Yang Li told reporters that the price fluctuation was caused by fine chemicals such as dyes and pesticides, while there was no obvious price fluctuation for bulk chemicals. From the industrial level, it also depends on the acceptance of the downstream and the implementation of the subsequent policies. Public information shows that on April 8, 51 stocks in the chemical sector rose by the limit. Among them, Zhejiang Longsheng has been trading for several consecutive days, and its stock price has doubled. However, in the opening on April 9, Zhejiang Longsheng showed a slight decline. As of 11:30 a.m. on that day, Zhejiang Longsheng's share price fell to 24.40 yuan / share, down 3.56%. A number of companies were hurt, and a number of industry insiders told reporters that the recent abnormal fluctuations in the chemical industry sector had an impact on the recent news that the Jiangsu government planned to close Xiangshui chemical industry park. On April 4, a meeting of the Standing Committee of the municipal Party committee was held in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. The meeting pointed out that small chemical industries with low safety factor and serious pollution problems should be eliminated completely with the will and determination of a strong man. It was decided to shut down Xiangshui Chemical Industry Park completely. On the morning of April 9, a member of the Secretary Office of Jiangsu Wuzhong (600200. SH) told reporters that at present, the company has not officially received the notice from the government on closing Xiangshui chemical industry park, and the relevant impact is still being evaluated. According to the announcement in Wuzhong, Jiangsu Province, there is no formal treatment plan and measures for the complete closure of Xiangshui chemical industry park at present, so there is great uncertainty about the subsequent treatment of Xiangshui Henglida. If the goodwill formed by the acquisition of 100% equity of Xiangshui Henglida is fully accrued, the company's performance in 2018 will suffer losses (there is still uncertainty in this matter). Previously, Jiangsu Wuzhong expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 42-72 million yuan in 2018. In response to the reporter, the above-mentioned person from the Secretary Office of director Wu Zhong of Jiangsu Province said that the provision of goodwill is only an assessment made by the assessment institution and the annual audit accountant out of professional judgment, because at present, the company has not received the government's policy notice on closing Xiangshui chemical industry Park, so it is still uncertain. Lianhua Technology (002250. SZ) was also affected by the explosion. The reporter learned that as of April 10, the company's subsidiaries Jiangsu Lianhua and Yancheng Lianhua are still in the state of production suspension. In 2018, the total operating revenue of the two companies was 1.923 billion yuan, accounting for 46.75% of the consolidated report of Lianhua technology. Lianhua technology announced that the two subsidiaries were temporarily shut down due to dealing with the aftermath, and the time to resume production could not be expected. It is reported that Jiangsu annuoqi Chemical Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of annuoqi (300067. SZ), is also located in Xiangshui chemical industry park. Annuoqi told reporters that since the "3.21" explosion in Xiangshui, annuoqi in Jiangsu has been in a state of shutdown, and the production of reactive dyes has been affected. At the same time, due to the recent price rise of disperse dyes, the 30000 tons of unaffected disperse dye production capacity in Dongying will bring extra profits and make up for the losses. The shutdown of annuoqi in Jiangsu will not have a significant impact on the company. Liu Guohong, general manager of Fuwei fund, told reporters that the complete shutdown of listed companies with production capacity in Xiangshui chemical industry park is a major negative impact. As a result, the short-term capacity reduction and supply compression will benefit the listed companies in the same industry. In the medium and long term, the chemical industry is in the lead of cyclical recovery. Jiangsu Province has carried out unprecedented renovation and upgrading of the entire chemical industry, resulting in a significant reduction of intra regional competition. The listed companies with large scale, high level of integration, standardized production safety and environmental protection will continue to benefit. In fact, the impact of Xiangshui "3 · 21" explosion on the chemical industry is far more than that. On the second day of the explosion accident, the Jiangsu provincial Party committee and government issued an emergency notice, demanding to do a good job in production safety in key industries such as hazardous chemicals, comprehensively investigate and eliminate hidden dangers in production safety in key industries such as hazardous chemicals, and resolutely prevent major accidents. In addition, Shandong, Hebei and other places have also carried out a series of chemical safety investigation. On April 1, an urgent notice on Soliciting Opinions on the improvement plan for the chemical industry in Jiangsu Province (Draft) issued by the general office of Jiangsu Province circulated on the Internet. According to the document, the number of chemical production enterprises in Jiangsu Province will be reduced to 2000 by 2020 and 1000 by 2022. "Xiangshui explosion accident exposed that China's chemical safety management concept and technical level is still in the primary stage." Yang Li told reporters that at present, China's overall chemical production capacity ranks first in the world, but safety management has not kept up with the pace of industrial development. If the policy is implemented, the supply of the chemical industry will shrink for a long time, and some enterprises with low level of environmental protection and safety supervision will be eliminated. With the increase of follow-up safety supervision, the chemical enterprises will be accelerated to "retreat from the city and enter the park". "What the Jiangsu government has just issued is just a draft. If the policy is implemented, the number of chemical enterprises in Jiangsu will decrease, which means that the chemical production capacity of the whole country will decrease. From the perspective of supply and demand, the price of products will rise." Yang Li said that in the long run, leading enterprises in the chemical industry segment and high-quality enterprises in high-quality parks will benefit more. A person who has been engaged in the research of chemical industry for a long time disclosed to the reporter that the severe rectification of chemical industry will be extended to the whole country. Small chemical enterprises have weak profitability and little impact on local tax revenue. Investment in fire protection, environmental protection, emission and other aspects will significantly increase the survival cost. These enterprises will either concentrate on large enterprises or be eliminated. On the other hand, the explosion of chemical plants in many places increases the risk cost of local governments, and increases the cost of human resources, land use and project approval of enterprises, which forces enterprises to concentrate on large chemical parks. Industry insiders told reporters that "retreat from the city and enter the park" is a long-term process, and it is not realistic for existing enterprises to move immediately. They will take the lead in the new approval and new construction projects. At the same time, the chemical industry park will form a migration trend from the second and third tier cities to the fourth and fifth tier cities. Yang Fuqiang also holds a similar view. He told reporters that the unprecedented renovation of the chemical industry in Jiangsu and even the whole country will lead to the pressure of small chemical enterprises in Guangdong, Southern Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to move out. The improvement of rectification will promote the implementation of "retreat from the city into the park" of chemical enterprises. In Yang Fuqiang's view, due to the close relationship between upstream and downstream of chemical enterprises, it will be more convenient to treat wastewater, heavily polluted waste and high-risk waste together, and the relocation of some influential chemical enterprises will drive more enterprises to form a cluster, so "retreat from the city and enter the park" is still the major trend in the future.