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Westward Development and remolding: tracing back to the source of the storm of chemical industry renovation in Chinas coastal areas and analyzing its spillover effects

2019-04-16
Times

Westward Development and remolding: tracing back to the source of the storm of chemical industry renovation in China's coastal areas and analyzing its spillover effects

The chain reaction of Xiangshui "3 · 21" explosion in Yancheng is still fermenting. Following the rapid launch of large-scale emergency investigation actions in many provinces, the general office of Jiangsu Provincial People's government issued an emergency notice on April 1 to solicit opinions on the "improvement plan of Jiangsu chemical industry", proposing that by the end of 2020, the number of chemical production enterprises in Jiangsu Province should be reduced to 2000, to 2 At the same time, we carried out a comprehensive evaluation of 50 chemical industry parks in the province, and reduced them to about 20 according to the evaluation results. On April 4, the Standing Committee of Yancheng Municipal Party committee held a meeting and pointed out that Xiangshui chemical industry park will be completely closed, small chemical industry with prominent safety and environmental protection problems will be eliminated, the standards for chemical industry park and enterprise renovation will be further raised, and the construction of "Wuhua District" will be supported. These two incidents have aroused widespread concern in the society, and have been interpreted as the fuse of the layout and structural adjustment of the chemical industry; in the chemical industry, they have caused a great stir in an instant, which can not be too much. In recent years, the coastal chemical industry improvement action, which is forced by the severe situation of safety and environmental protection, is upgraded step by step. What is the correct interpretation of the nature of the problem? What is the possible follow-up impact and evolution? The Industrial Development Research Center of China Chemical Industry Press conducted an investigation and Research on it.

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(drawing provided by CFP)

Status quo and source: a storm out of line with the development stage

Since 2012, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Tianjin and other coastal chemical industry provinces and cities in China have been forced by the severe situation of safety and environmental protection, and have successively carried out a round of chemical industry improvement actions, which are gradually upgrading. Especially in Shandong Province and Jiangsu Province, which have long been ranked first and second in China's chemical industry, the intensity of policy intervention and regulation is unprecedented and promising Can be the future queen. In addition, since 2017, with the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt gradually entering the climax, the improvement of the chemical industry along the Yangtze River has also been upgraded.

Coastal and riverside areas have always been the base of the development of China's chemical industry. This pattern has experienced a long evolution process of nearly a hundred years from germination to development and then to confrontation. However, with the outbreak of safety and environmental protection problems in chemical industry concentration areas in recent years, the current situation has shaken the existing pattern and foundation of China's chemical industry for a century.

Focusing on the four key points of controlling increment, optimizing stock, entering districts and parks, and whole field supervision, Shandong Province, the first province of chemical industry in China, has carried out a massive special action of transformation and upgrading of chemical industry safety production since 2017. In one year, 620 chemical enterprises were closed and 2614 stopped production, accounting for 42.5% of chemical production enterprises in Shandong Province. In the next step, Shandong Province will strive to close more than 20% of the enterprises on the existing basis, control the number of chemical production enterprises in the province to less than 5000, and realize the reduction and promotion of chemical enterprises.

In terms of the governance of chemical industry parks, there are more than 200 original chemical industry parks (gathering areas) in Shandong Province, which are highly distributed with "parks in cities" or even "parks in counties". Since last year, Shandong Province has carried out the identification management of chemical industry park and professional chemical industry park. Up to now, after three rounds of identification, 66 Jiayuan district has been approved. Shandong Province has made it clear that it will only retain no more than 85 chemical industry parks, including 75 comprehensive parks and 10 professional parks, through rectification. For the old park that has not been re identified as the park and the gathering area that can not be identified as the park, it is not allowed to build, expand or add new chemical production capacity projects, that is, only the right to survive is reserved, and the door of continuous development is basically closed.

In recent years, Jiangsu, the second province of China's chemical industry, has also taken great actions in chemical renovation and upgrading. Thousands of small and medium-sized chemical enterprises along the Yangtze River and around Taihu Lake have been cleaned up. However, with the occurrence of the "3.21" accident in Xiangshui, Yancheng, the renovation action has been further upgraded. According to the proposal of Jiangsu chemical industry improvement plan (Exposure Draft), the goal is to carry out in-depth improvement of the chemical industry in Jiangsu Province, adjust and optimize the industrial planning layout, greatly reduce the number of chemical production enterprises within 1 km along both sides of the Yangtze River, environmentally sensitive areas, densely populated urban areas, outside the chemical industry park, and below the designated scale, and strive to crack the "heavy chemical encirclement" and "low-cost" problems Scattered pollution and other prominent problems. By the end of 2020, the number of chemical production enterprises in the province will be reduced to 2000. By 2022, the number of chemical production enterprises in the province will not exceed 1000.

At the same time, reduce the number of chemical parks, promote the renovation and upgrading of chemical parks, and accelerate the construction of high-level chemical parks. Comprehensive evaluation was carried out on 50 chemical industry parks in the province, and the number was reduced to about 20 according to the evaluation results. Strict chemical industry access, improve the industry access threshold. In principle, the investment of new chemical projects should not be less than 1 billion yuan. It is forbidden to build and expand intermediate chemical projects of pesticides, pharmaceuticals and dyes, and no new chemical pesticide production enterprises will be added. Establish a negative list management system, and further expand the scope of elimination and prohibition catalogue according to the requirements of controlling high pollution, high energy consumption and backward technology.

Since 2012, Zhejiang Province has carried out a three-year rectification and upgrading action for the chemical industry of the whole province to rectify the problem of "low, small and scattered" chemical industry. In 2018, Zhejiang Province issued the "three year action plan to win the battle of blue sky defense", which clearly put forward the prohibition of new chemical parks, comprehensive treatment of "scattered pollution" enterprises, and promoted the treatment of all kinds of industrial parks with 100 key industrial parks as the starting point. Due to its early start, great efforts and outstanding achievements, the chemical safety and environmental protection situation in Zhejiang Province has been greatly improved.

Due to the "8 · 12" explosion accident in 2015, Tianjin has also greatly upgraded the chemical industry management and layout planning, and has clearly gathered the city's scattered chemical industries to Nangang industrial bureau, so as to achieve the goal of eliminating and upgrading a number of chemical industries.

What is the background and logic of this restless joint rectification of coastal chemical industry, and where will it take China's chemical industry? Our research team believes that this is a perfect storm out of line with the development stage, and it is neither too early nor too late.

We take Jiangsu Province as an example to do a sample analysis. From Figure 1, we can see the change of per capita GDP (in US dollars) in Jiangsu Province since 2010.

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Figure 1 Changes of per capita GDP in Jiangsu Province since 2010

As an economically developed coastal province in China, Jiangsu's per capita GDP broke through the $10000 mark as early as 2012, and exceeded the world average level for the first time in 2013, crossing the middle-income stage. In 2018, Jiangsu's per capita GDP reached 17400 US dollars, reaching or approaching the level of moderately developed countries, taking the lead in realizing a major leap in the development stage.

As we all know, different development stages correspond to different industrial forms and levels. To put it in a figurative way, in the early stage of agricultural development, there is no exception and no choice but to grow grain; in the middle stage of development, some of them will change to grow vegetables, fruits and other cash crops, and grain production will speed up industrial upgrading; In the later stage of development, there will be a large number of advanced forms such as ecological agriculture, organic agriculture and leisure agriculture, and the appearance of basic agriculture will also have great changes. Development stage and industrial form are mutually mapped, and mismatch or disconnection often leads to serious problems. In any developed country, its agriculture is unlikely to be extensive and low-level planting agriculture, but should be dominated by modern agriculture; in a large organic ecological manor, it is impossible to intercrop primary planting agriculture with ferocious manure; in an exquisite hundred flower garden, weeds are absolutely not allowed That's the truth.

The chemical industry in Jiangsu Province, the problem is out of line with the development stage. As an economy that has reached or approached the level of moderately developed countries, the chemical industry of Jiangsu Province is a mixed and complex form that spans different development stages of 30 years. There are not only modern chemical industry matching the level of moderately developed countries, but also low-end chemical industry in primary form, and the scale is not small. In addition to the mixed industrial forms, the industrial distribution is also highly dispersed, showing that every city or even every county has a chemical industry, which makes the management very difficult.

So, according to the development stage of Jiangsu Province, what should the corresponding chemical industry form look like? What kind of form should the chemical industry of Jiangsu Province pursue and advocate at present? Obviously, the level of moderately developed countries should have corresponding matching chemical industry system and level, and the chemical industry of Jiangsu Province should naturally be the same as that of central and Eastern Europe, Saudi Arabia and Oman The chemical industry in Middle East countries such as the United States is similar. The per capita GDP of central and Eastern European countries such as Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvian, Poland and Hungary, and Middle East oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Oman ranges from US $15000 to US $25000, which is basically at the same development level as Jiangsu Province. However, compared with them, the gap in the development stage of chemical industry in Jiangsu Province is obvious. There are two main gaps: first, on the medium and high-end chemical industry, Jiangsu Province is basically at the same level with the above-mentioned regions, but at the same time, there are a large number of medium and low-end industries in Jiangsu Province, which are not found in the above-mentioned regions; Secondly, the distribution of chemical industry in Jiangsu Province is very scattered, while the chemical industry in central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East are basically dominated by large enterprises and distributed in parks, with obvious differences.

Through comparison, it is not difficult to draw a conclusion: whether it is proposed by the "Jiangsu chemical industry improvement plan" to reduce the chemical enterprises and "scattered pollution risk" enterprises, or Yancheng City to explore the construction of "Wuhua District", from the perspective of goal orientation, it is not inappropriate. Jiangsu Province has indeed reached such a stage that medium and high-end industries and large enterprises should be absolutely dominant It is not necessary for every city or county to have a chemical industry. However, from the perspective of the development process, Jiangsu Province should have consciously promoted the adjustment and upgrading of the chemical industry as early as ten years ago. Problems have accumulated until now. It is only under the severe situation that Jiangsu Province hastily takes action and tries to accomplish its work in a short time. It is really easy to give people the impression of being impatient and rash. This is also the fundamental reason why the chemical industry is boiling with public opinion on the new deal.

This also leads to another problem. Industrial management and planning need to have a forward-looking vision, and there needs to be 5-10 years of advanced layout guidance between the actual development and industrial management. Otherwise, it is easy to fall into the embarrassment of missing a good opportunity or riding a tiger. As early as about 10 years ago, Jiangsu Province formulated and implemented its own chemical industry adjustment and upgrading actions against the oil producing countries in central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East. At this moment, what kind of new goals should Jiangsu Province set and implement its new chemical industry adjustment and upgrading actions?

Our research team thinks that the most suitable target for this new goal is South Korea. South Korea is both an East Asian economy and a chemical power. It is 10 years ahead of Jiangsu Province in the development stage, which is just the ideal goal of Jiangsu chemical industry. The comparison of chemical industry between Jiangsu Province and South Korea is shown in Table 1.

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Table 1 Comparison of chemical industry between Jiangsu Province and South Korea

By comparing with the chemical industry of South Korea, the gap and direction of adjustment and upgrading of chemical industry in Jiangsu Province are also obvious: substantially eliminate low-end industries and enterprises, free up valuable resources and development space for leading enterprises and high-end industries; substantially gather industrial development space, expand a number of excellent chemical parks, and completely change the scattered chemical industry layout.

In the past decade, the chemical industry of Jiangsu Province was out of touch with the development stage, which caused today's problems. However, from the perspective of progress, looking at the next decade, the "amazing move" of Jiangsu Province is a matter of fact, and we should not blame it for perfection. What's more, to reduce the number of chemical enterprises and parks by more than half, to completely close Xiangshui chemical industry park, and to explore the construction of "Wuhua District", the people of Jiangsu and Yancheng, who were born and grew up here, have the most right to speak and choose. The economically developed Jiangsu Province has the confidence, and it is necessary to "implement classified policies" for the chemical industry: eliminate and withdraw the underdeveloped chemical industry, and focus on leading the future In order to realize the historic transformation of high-quality development between the advance and retreat, we need to develop the green high-end industry of China.

The problems in Jiangsu are more or less exist in the eastern coastal chemical industry provinces. As the most elite areas of China's economy, there are huge numbers of low-end industries and enterprises that are out of development stage. Under the realistic framework of local protection and departmentalism, it is easy for policy makers and industrial management departments to fall into the myth of taking all the high and low, but in fact, it is against the law of development and impossible to achieve. At present, Jiangsu, Shandong and other places are forced to blow the storm of chemical industry renovation, which shows us a truth: the development of chemical industry must adapt to the level of local economic and social stage, neither too advanced nor out of touch, which is not based on the will of people - if people do not think, the storm will destroy it.

Influence and evolution: realizing the second industrial restructuring in the process of Westward Development

There is no doubt that the storm of industrial renovation and upgrading in Shandong, Jiangsu and other major chemical industry provinces has a significant spillover effect. Will a large number of medium and low-end chemical production capacity and a considerable number of small and medium-sized enterprises, which have been rejected by coastal chemical industry provinces, withdraw from the stage of history? If not, in what form will they return to the stage? This is the variable we are most concerned about.

After logical reasoning and reanalysis of the previous investigation, our research team came to a general conclusion: the chemical industry in the economically developed areas of eastern China will finally realize the secondary reconstruction of the layout and structure of the national chemical industry in the process of westward development, and the face of China's chemical industry will eventually undergo a historic upheaval; In the future, the eastern coastal area will become the base of large-scale refining and high-end chemical industry, and more basic chemical production capacity will be transferred to the central and western regions, especially the central region.

From the logical reasoning point of view, under the background of Jiangsu, Shandong and other places' strict orders to the middle and low-end chemical industry, it is certain that some enterprises will not rule out "returning to the field" or seeking another way out, but this will not become the mainstream, because of the considerable profit return of the current chemical industry. Benefiting from the large business cycle and solid supply side structural reform, since 2017, the domestic petrochemical market has continued to resonate with the world, becoming the leading sector in this round of macro-economic recovery cycle, and the profits of the vast majority of chemical industry segments are considerable. Taking the chemical pesticides and intermediates, pharmaceutical intermediates, dye intermediates and other industries as examples, the current gross profit margin of many fields can even reach more than 50%, which is an irresistible temptation for industrial capital. According to the prediction of IHS and other authoritative institutions, the global chemical industry business cycle is expected to continue to around 2021, and the sensitive industrial capital can not let go of this difficult business cycle in a decade.

The most predictable way out is to move westward to the central and western regions where the comprehensive cost is lower than that of the eastern coastal areas and the safety and environmental protection control is relatively loose. Although the western region is far away from the core area of the market, it is still attractive to some specific industries because of its rich resources and low cost of factors. Although the central region, especially the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt, is also blowing the storm of safety and environmental protection, it can not be compared with the eastern coastal areas. For example, the renovation of the chemical industry in the Yangtze River economic belt is mainly concentrated in the cleaning up and renovation of chemical enterprises and parks within 1 km along the Yangtze River. Although it involves a wide range, from the perspective of strength and far-reaching influence, the investment layout of chemical projects obviously has a larger opening and space than that of eastern coastal areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

According to our previous investigation and study, it also confirms the conclusive evidence that the chemical industry in the eastern coastal area is moving westward. As China's traditional dyestuff industry province, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, has greatly upgraded the supervision of dyestuff and intermediate industry, it has gradually become a trend for small and medium-sized enterprises in these areas to transfer to Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, northeast and northwest regions. In recent two or three years, a large number of new dyestuff and intermediate projects have been transferred, because of lower production and operation costs and more relaxed policy atmosphere, On the contrary, it has brought great competitive pressure to the leading dyestuff enterprises in the eastern region, which many people did not expect.

In addition, for a long time, it seems common for chemical enterprises in the central and western regions to learn from the advanced enterprises and parks in the eastern coastal areas. However, in the past two years, chemical entrepreneurs in Zhejiang and other places began to spontaneously organize groups to frequently visit the central and western regions, which means self-evident.

In a word, the chemical industry in both the eastern and the central and western regions is unlikely to leave the market in groups because of the drastic changes in the policy environment. It is more logical and realistic to transfer to the low-lying areas, including the low-lying areas of cost, the low-lying areas of resources and the low-lying areas of policy. Does this mean that there is a risk that the central and western regions will become a new gathering area of "concealing the evils"? Otherwise, or that sentence, as long as we firmly grasp a principle that the development of the chemical industry must adapt to and match the local economic and social development stage, and continue to optimize and upgrade in the development, the chemical industry can be used for economic and social development, rather than become a burden and drag Fatigue and hidden danger.

Suggestions and Countermeasures: Based on the fundamental principle of specialization and strengthening the advantageous industrial chain

The middle and low-end chemical industry in the eastern coastal areas has the will and motivation to transfer to the central and western regions. For the central and western regions, is it to follow the trend, or to scientifically guide and accurately choose? This is a key issue. If we don't make clear the rules at the beginning of the trend, the embarrassment of the eastern coastal areas today will surely be more serious in the central and western regions tomorrow Now, there is no doubt about that.

The cascade transfer of China's industrial economy has gone through many years, and many problems have been exposed. The most criticized is that the transfer of production capacity is accompanied by the transfer of high pollution, high energy consumption and high risk. In the next round of chemical industry transfer climax, in order to prevent the recurrence of this problem, it is necessary for the vast central and western regions to plan as soon as possible and do a good job in the top-level design of policy plans and systems. Therefore, we suggest that:

First, support the transfer of industrial capital and curb the duplication of simple capacity transfer. The central and western regions should be on high alert for such a sign: some speculators are not bright in the East but in the west, simply transferring and copying backward production capacity that should have been resolutely eliminated to the central and western regions. For this reason, access control is very critical. We must give priority to the transfer of industrial capital, support the chemical industrial capital in the eastern region to build new investment projects in the central and western regions, give appropriate support in policy, and control standards can be lower than those in the eastern region, but must be higher than the national and industry wide access standards. The bottom line of "pass line" must not be lost Keep. In addition, we should strengthen the dynamic management, continuously upgrade the corresponding control standards according to the local economic and social development level, and strengthen the guidance of supporting the superior and eliminating the inferior.

Second, highlight the professional investment. Compared with the eastern coastal areas, the biggest advantage of the central and western regions is the resource elements. However, the resource endowment of each province is different. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on careful selection and precise docking in undertaking industrial transfer, rather than taking all the orders and putting them into the basket. For example, Guizhou Province is rich in phosphorus and coal resources, and has strong ability to guarantee water resources. To undertake industrial transfer, we should give priority to how to make high value and efficient use of local phosphorus coal resources, and strive to develop medium and high-end phosphorus coal resources deep processing industry.

Specialization has a great advantage, that is, it is convenient for accurate and efficient management, and the safety factor is naturally higher. In recent years, safety accidents occur frequently in Shandong and Jiangsu, and all aspects point at the lack of supervision. In fact, the supervision is strict enough, and the supervision department is also hard enough. But the scale of the industry is so large, the categories are so complex, and the process parameters, technical requirements and safety regulations of each industry are different. How to manage them? Therefore, the central and western regions, where the scale of the chemical industry is not very large, must learn lessons and pay attention to the development of specialization and differentiation. Just imagine, if each province has only a few characteristic chemical industries and a few highly specialized industrial parks, will accurate and effective supervision become a problem?

Third, the purpose and principle is to strengthen the advantageous industrial chain. After 70 years of development since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the current industrial pattern of the central and western regions has been basically determined, and the advantageous industries, characteristic industries, and potential industries of each province have also come to light. As an important raw material industry, chemical industry is directly related to dozens of supporting industries, which is of great significance to further strengthen the related downstream industries. Therefore, the central and western provinces in the process of undertaking the eastern chemical industry transfer, there is an important principle is to strengthen the local advantage industry chain.

For example, Hunan Province is not only a large agricultural province, but also an important production base of nonferrous metals and construction machinery in China. Nonferrous industry needs a lot of sulfuric acid and other chemical raw materials, and construction machinery industry needs coatings as supporting. In order to further expand the local nonferrous and construction machinery industries, Hunan Province has the reason and space to undertake industrial capital transfer and develop supporting sulfuric acid and special coatings industries.

Henan Province has always been an important part of China's textile industry, especially the cotton textile industry. Even today, with the rapid development of cotton textile industry in the eastern coastal areas and Xinjiang, Henan Province still occupies an important position in China's cotton textile territory. At present, the cotton textile industry in Henan Province is speeding up the pace of transformation and upgrading, and the demand for high-quality printing and dyeing industry is rigid. Therefore, in the process of undertaking the industrial transfer at home and abroad, it is a natural choice for Henan Province to open the door to the printing and dyeing industry.

"The sound of the apes on both sides of the Strait can't be heard, and the light boats have passed the mountains." we don't need to entangle and stop too much about the disaster and confusion of chemical industry in the eastern coastal areas. The historical express of the global redistribution of China's chemical industry and the cascade transfer between domestic regions is coming. As long as we conform to the general trend, respect the market and follow the rules, we clearly know what to do at what stage What to do, what level to do, what environment to do, follow the trend, forward-looking guidance, scientific management, the market economy design master will fully release his potential, and finally configure a brand-new Chinese chemical industry. This is not only a more scientific and optimized territory, but also a safer and healthier one.


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